GoldandGreenNews.com - Rams Roundtable: Texas Christian

October 17, 2009

Tom Lacock
GoldandGreenNews.com Publisher

Today the Colorado State football team goes to Texas where everything is bigger, including the challenges. This weekend the Rams will take on a Texas Christian football team that is ranked comfortably inside the top 15 in nearly every poll in the land. Joining us today are Joel Cantalamessa of Ramnation.com, The Fort Collins Coloradoan's Kelly Lyell and our own Tom Lacock to discuss the Rams' contest with the Horned Frogs in Fort Worth today.

Goldandgreennews.com:What did we learn about Colorado State in the loss to Utah this week? Any positives to be taken out of this game? What is the mood of the team after losing three-in-a-row?

Lyell: The Rams showed they can play with and probably beat one of the elite teams in the Mountain West Conference if they can stay on top of their game for four quarters, and that's clearly a positive they can take from that contest. At the same time, three losses in a row have erased the euphoria of their 3-0 start, although players and coaches this week insist the mood remains upbeat and practices have been good.

Cantalamessa:Sure, there are positives in that the Rams learned that they can hang with all of the "Big 3" in the MWC. Last year they proved they can compete with BYU and TCU in narrow losses, and they had Utah on the ropes Saturday. Steve Fairchild has said the players need to graduate from "thinking they can win" a game against the Big 3, and "know they can win". Still not quite there yet. A three-game skid doesn't help the psyche, and heading to a game against a Top 10 team with incredible speed and stout defense isn't going to help matters.

Lacock:We learned at their best, they are capable of handling the conference's elite and even more than that, the running game is capable of moving the ball against anyone in the conference. The offensive line for Colorado State stood tall and Leonard Mason was hitting the hole stronger than any back has for the Rams all season. If they can take that feeling and move it forward through the season, their confidence should be sky-high.

Goldandgreennews.com: Colorado State's defense has gone from being very stingy to start the season to giving up 860 yards per game over the course of the last two contests. Is this a matter of injuries, better competition or have offensive coordinators just figured out something about the CSU defense? Were we pre-mature in celebrating an improved Colorado State defense after wins over CU-Boulder and Weber State? How does Larry Kerr and company begin to fix the defense?

Lyell:The defense was, indeed stingy in the first two games this season, limiting Colorado to 251 yards and Weber State to 316. But Nevada had 420 yards and BYU 373, so the 333 given up to Idaho and 457 allowed against Utah are not all that shocking. CSU's defense is vulnerable to a good passing attack, and Utah used its passing game early to soften up the run defense. Injuries are playing a role, however, with two of the top three defensive ends (Ty Whittier and Eugene Daniels) missing the past two games with injuries and middle linebackers Alex Williams and Chris Gipson each missing one of the past two. The Rams are better defensively this year than last, but probably not by as much as we thought after the first two games. There is very little depth on the defensive line and at linebacker, and the backups the Rams have in the secondary beyond DeAngelo Wilkinson have not covered the pass well.

Cantalamessa:The team certainly has faced better offenses over the last month, which contributes to the less-impressive defensive statistics. A couple of injuries have also taken a toll, with defensive end Ty Whittier missing games and Alex Williams being injured also. In addition, while the defense was coming up with timely turnovers in the first few games, they have been unable to do so lately, and they are also not getting off the field on third down, allowing offenses to keep drives alive, rack up yardage, and put more points on the board. The "bend but not break" defense is bending AND breaking lately. That being said, the CSU defense was solid against Utah, and put the team in position to win the game. But, interceptions on three straight possession to end the game by the Rams' offense put the defense in a tough situation, as did horrible kickoff coverage all game.

Lacock:I think a couple things are happening and neither is good. From the start of this season, I have been saying this is a team that has little depth in the front seven and if you can wear the CSU defensive line down, the opposition can make some hay. If you look at when the Rams have had the most trouble defensively, it comes at the end of the third quarter and for the bulk of the fourth quarter. I think a decent Colorado State defensive line is just getting worn out due to a lack of depth. I also think the lack of a consistent pass rush means the Rams have to bring pressure and take players out of pass coverage. That exposes a defensive secondary that is still somewhat inexperienced. That is a bad combination for Coach Kerr and the Rams.

Goldandgreennews.com: Grant Stucker came into the game averaging 298 yards per game through the air and had a rough, rough time against Utah, going just 12-24-3-184. How much of the drop in numbers was the defense he faced, how much was the weather and do you expect him to get those numbers to come back up? Any concern over the fact he has been intercepted the last two weeks when the Rams needed him most in the fourth quarter of a game they were losing?

Lyell:The drop in production was a combination of an outstanding Utah defense and difficult weather conditions for the passing game. I expect Stucker to bounce back well this season, but not necessarily this week against a TCU defense that is even better than Utah's. The late interceptions are a concern, and this past week, at least, a reflection of Stucker's inexperience. On one, he tried to hit the home run when he should have hit another receiver who was wide-open for a 20- to 25-yard gain, and on another, he put a little too much air under the ball and underestimated the tremendous closing speed of Utah free safety Robert Johnson, who was nowhere near the play when the ball left Stucker's hands but wound up making the interception.

Cantalamessa:I attribute to inconsistency and inexperience. This is why Fairchild was so hard on Grant Stucker in the preseason - not because he doesn't have ability, but because he is inconsistent in performance. Stucker looks great at times, and bad at other times. It's bound to happen, as he's only started six games in his career. Also, Stucker has had a habit of putting too much air under his deep throws all season long. However, in previous games, against lesser-talented defenses, the Rams were able to complete some of those passes. But against a talented defense like Utah's, with skilled safeties looming, Stucker wasn't so fortunate.

Lacock:I don't blame Stucker alone for the drop in production at all. Last week the Ram receivers did a poor job of getting away from the bump-and-run coverage of Utah. That has to improve this weekend in order for the Rams to stay in this game. I also think Stucker is at his best when he gets time in the pocket and isn't particularly good once the pocket breaks down. Last weekend the combination of a good pass rush by Utah and the lack of separation by the Colorado State receivers was disaster for CSU. I think the other thing to remember is Stucker is still a work in progress. This is his first season under center and he will have good weeks as well as bad weeks.

Goldandgreennews.com:When you think about TCU, the first thing that comes to your mind is a fast defense that doesn't allow many points, plays a strong man-to-man defense and gets wins. That seems to be exactly what is happening again this season as the Horned Frogs have the top overall defense in the conference (249 yards per game) and the second-best scoring defense (15.2 ppg) in the country. TCU's passing defense allows just 165 yards per game and shut down the Colorado State passing game a year ago. Does it help Colorado State to have played a very strong pass defense last week or hurt them? Can the Ram passing game move the ball against this TCU pass defense?

Lyell:The only way the Rams are going to be able to move the ball consistently against this TCU defense is through the air. The Horned Frogs will play all three safeties in tight to stop the run until they get a ball thrown over their heads. Once that happens, CSU should be able to become a bit more balanced offensively. Still, the Rams are going to struggle for every yard they get against this defense.

Cantalamessa:Like always, for the Rams to have success, they'll need a balanced offense. This will be a tougher challenge than Utah last week. TCU is even better on defense than the Utes, with better speed and a more efficient pass rush. I think CSU can move the ball against teams like Utah and TCU, but their problem is shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers, dropped balls, and penalties. That's what the Rams cannot afford Saturday. They need a clean game if they want to have a chance to win this game.

Lacock:This game will come down to whether or not Rashaun Greer, Tyson Liggett and Dion Morton can get separation from the TCU defensive backfield. Stucker is not yet confident enough to try to thread the needle into a tight space and the Rams' running game, although impressive last week, won't likely be able to carry the Ram offense on their own. Greer has to be "Big Game Greer," and show why he was voted a pre-season All-Conference selection.

Goldandgreennews.com: Offensively TCU is averaging 215 yards per game on the ground, led by Joe Turner's 371 yards this season. Andy Dalton is second in the conference in passing efficiency gained during games against competition like Virginia and Clemson. How do you begin to slow down the offense and how much does their offense succeed due to a strong defense?

Lyell:TCU's offense is very efficient, like Dalton's passing. Nothing fancy but effective enough to get the job done. The Rams will have to stop the run game, forcing Dalton into predictable passing situations that will allow CSU to focus its defense on rushing the passer and covering receivers.

Cantalamessa:I don't think the Rams will change up their defense much. They'll stick with the soft zone and hope to limit the big play. The Horned Frogs, like the Rams, have a tendency to turn the ball over and commit a lot of penalties themselves. So, if the Rams can avoid giving up the big scoring play, they may be able to create turnovers or allow TCU to kill drives via penalties. Against Clemson, for example, TCU had over 100 yards in penalties. But, TCU's offense poses significant challenges for the Rams, with a mobile, savvy quarterback in Andy Dalton, a tough running game, and speedy wideouts. It doesn't help that the Rams will likely be without dependable safety Klint Kubiak, who is injured.

Lacock:I don't think the keys for the defense change at all this weekend. The Rams need to get off the field on third down, which they haven't been good at this season (opponents have converted on 47-for-90 third down attempts). That starts on first and second down being able to stand up against the run and keeping themselves fresh for the second half. The Horned Frogs are known for their short-side option, which means assignment football and the need for discipline, particularly for the strong safety, the corners and outside linebackers. The Rams have a high degree of athletic ability, but also youth in each of those spots. If the Rams can stop the short-side option, they will make this game far more interesting than the Frogs may prefer.

Goldandgreennews.com: Finally, your keys to the game and a prediction on the score.

Lyell:CSU can play better than it has all season offensively and still come up short in this game. TCU's defense is stout, and the offense is remarkably efficient. CSU's best chance to win is if the Frogs start looking ahead to where they'll be ranked Sunday, when the first BCS standings come out, instead of focusing on the game. I don't see coach Gary Patterson allowing his team to stray like that, though. TCU 35, CSU 17.

Cantalamessa: When the Rams battled TCU to a 13-7 loss in 2008, it was a sign that they could compete with the Mountain West Conference's elite teams. The Rams had a chance to win the game, but suffered two dropped touchdown passes in the loss. The Rams have come a long way since that game, and across the board are improved as a program. However, despite an early season tease, the Rams haven't arrived yet. They are still plagued by mistakes and unlike earlier in the season, have not quite mastered putting teams away when playing with a lead. Unfortunately in this game, turnovers and miscues will put the game out of reach. TCU is too talented and will be a load for the Rams, particularly in the friendly confines of Amon G. Carter Stadium. The Rams should be able to hang tight for a while, but the typical turnovers and mistakes will doom the Rams down the stretch. TCU 20 CSU 13

Lacock:Not to sound like a broken record, but if the Rams' wide receivers can get off the man coverage, the Ram defense can get off the field on third down and I think the Rams need to come into the game without being intimidated. They have the horses to hang with the Frogs if they play their best game. That fact can't be lost on CSU in the opening minutes of the game. TCU got out of Fort Collins feeling very lucky to take a win back to Fort Worth and they are well-aware of it. They will try to jump out to an early start to bury the Rams and get them thinking, "here we go again." TCU 24, Colorado State 14.

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